Y: Good news, Don. Did you know that according to the odds calculated by the Florida      Museum of Natural History, the only institution in the United States that tracks shark      attacks, you are about four times more likely to be hit by lightning than to be      attacked by a shark?

D: Wait a minute, Yael, how can that be? I mean, a lot of states don't even border the      ocean, so you would think that for the average American, the odds of getting hit by      lightning would be way higher than the odds of being attacked by a shark.

Y: Oh--I see the problem. The data I was referring to only compare the number of      lightening strikes with the number of shark attacks in coastal states.

D: Well, that makes a lot more sense. That's the thing with statistics. It's really important      to know how statisticians and scientists are figuring out all those odds we constantly      hear about. Otherwise, the numbers become meaningless. For example, you could      argue that even the Florida Museum of Natural History's approach to figuring out the      odds of a shark attack are flawed. What if the people attacked by sharks happened      to be tourists from out of state? And what about the fact that we spend a lot more      time on land than we do in the water? And what about the fact that there are more      incidents of lightning in places like the Midwest than there are on the coasts? And      what--

Y: I get the picture, Don.

D: Anyway, that's why reputable sources always explain the basis of their statistical      data.  

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