Yaël: What are you doing with that shovel, Don?

Don: I'm digging a hole for a tornado shelter to get ready for next winter, Yaël.

Y: A tornado shelter for winter?

D: Yep. We're going to have lots of tornadoes in the midwest this year.

Y: How could you know that?

D: Because the sea surface temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is cooler.

Y: Now you are sounding crazy, Don.

D: Not as crazy as you might think. Tropical Pacific water temperatures fluctuate in two-      to seven-year cycles, and those temperature events can last five months or longer.      For years we've known that during El Niño events, when the Pacific waters are      warmer, the weather is generally wetter in North and South America and Africa, and      can cause massive floods. At the same time, it's drier in Asia and Australia, causing      droughts. During La Niña events, when the Pacific is cooler, it's just the opposite.

Y: So, what does this have to do with winter tornadoes?

D: Since tornadoes are so destructive, meteorologists at the NOAA Storm Prediction      Center are always looking for new ways to predict where and when they will occur.      They have discovered that during El Niño years, more winter tornadoes occur in      Florida and the Gulf states. During La Niña years, there are more tornadoes in Texas      and the upper Midwest.

Y: So, knowing what's happening in the Pacific gives meteorologists advance warning.

D: Exactly right. Isn't it amazing?

Y: Almost as amazing as your building a tornado shelter when you already have a      basement for protection.

D: Hm. I guess I hadn't thought of that.  

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